Drop Rate Formula:
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The OSRS Drop Rate Calculator helps players determine the probability of receiving at least one drop after a certain number of kills, based on the item's drop rate.
The calculator uses the following probability formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula calculates the probability of getting at least one drop by considering the chance of NOT getting the drop in all attempts.
Details: Drop rates in OSRS represent the probability of receiving a specific item from a monster or activity. A 1/500 rate means each kill has a 0.2% chance of dropping the item.
Tips: Enter the drop rate (e.g., 500 for 1/500) and the number of kills. The calculator will show the probability of receiving at least one drop in that many kills.
Q1: Does killing more monsters guarantee a drop?
A: No, the drop chance never reaches 100%. Even at 5 times the drop rate, there's still a small chance of not getting the item.
Q2: How many kills to have a 50% chance?
A: Approximately 0.693 × drop rate kills (e.g., ~347 kills for a 1/500 item).
Q3: Do drop rates change based on previous kills?
A: No, each kill is an independent event with the same drop chance (unless mechanics like bad luck mitigation apply).
Q4: What's the chance of going dry?
A: The chance of not getting a drop in N kills is (1 - 1/Rate)^N.
Q5: Are some drops affected by luck?
A: Most drops are fixed rates, but some activities have mechanics that improve chances over time.