1. What is the Elo Win Probability?

The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitive games. The win probability formula estimates the expected outcome between two players based on their Elo ratings.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the Elo win probability formula:

Where:

• \( my\_elo \) — Your Elo rating
• \( opponent\_elo \) — Your opponent's Elo rating
• 400 — Rating difference that gives 10:1 expected score

Explanation: The formula calculates the expected score (win probability) based on the rating difference between two players.

3. Importance of Elo Rating

Details: Elo ratings are widely used in chess and other competitive games to rank players and predict match outcomes. A higher rated player is expected to score more against a lower rated player.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter both players' Elo ratings (must be positive numbers). The calculator will show the probability that the first player wins.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What does a 50% win probability mean?
A: It means the two players have equal Elo ratings and are equally likely to win.

Q2: How accurate is the Elo prediction?
A: The prediction becomes more accurate over many games but individual results may vary due to luck and other factors.

Q3: What's the significance of the 400 number?
A: A 400-point rating difference means the higher rated player is 10 times more likely to win than the lower rated one.

Q4: Can this be used for team games?
A: Yes, but team ratings are typically calculated differently (averages or sums of individual ratings).

Q5: How do ratings change after a game?
A: The amount of points gained/lost depends on the actual result vs. expected result (K-factor) and players' ratings.